Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.741339 21.360160 24.187942 27.465178 31.155610 35.179632 39.896697
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.682678 18.175211 22.240046 27.308165 33.445154 40.622721 49.640155
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.860409 16.777754 21.558512 27.799290 35.706053 45.362964 58.022642
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.327653 15.485228 20.777195 27.970843 37.453833 49.481926 65.843313
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.004304 14.248253 19.852481 27.743792 38.509994 52.617452 72.424866
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.091109 13.436872 19.369150 27.991110 40.121236 56.483493 80.111749
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.533596 13.043932 19.388282 28.875815 42.596672 61.590304 89.713754
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.713526 12.180752 18.649274 28.591865 43.356229 64.306992 96.077735
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.690938 10.912110 17.201811 27.134397 42.271422 64.277256 98.433176
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.339284 10.635881 17.200752 27.815854 44.362859 68.929765 107.837093
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.036884 10.405481 17.241422 28.545019 46.545297 73.804171 117.799661
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.571608 9.866542 16.749300 28.387064 47.316689 76.550906 124.625844
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.061642 9.218574 16.046743 27.861475 47.503468 78.455536 130.341236
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.703882 8.799665 15.687570 27.869601 48.545791 81.753974 138.437270
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.460530 8.557076 15.599866 28.313492 50.312307 86.275902 148.700766
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.196470 8.252937 15.379937 28.506981 51.654600 90.156781 158.090437
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.889056 7.840859 14.936233 28.269586 52.226844 92.765225 165.458742
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.682459 7.599943 14.778388 28.523398 53.657479 96.872517 175.541261
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.581884 7.554333 14.971947 29.423145 56.279098 103.138131 189.626752
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.330640 7.189642 14.542247 29.134384 56.723355 105.619407 197.200750
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.953675 6.538324 13.518616 27.650867 54.869515 103.924210 197.255784
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.864846 6.473385 13.626154 28.344502 57.121156 109.692415 210.991928
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.785952 6.422438 13.756233 29.086642 59.499419 115.793463 225.603277